⚽️TITLE BOUTS in Spain, Germany, and Côte d'Ivoire
Real Madrid host upstarts Girona, Bayer Leverkusen face Bayern Munich, and the Africa Cup of Nations is finalized.
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Take your pick of three title fights this weekend across Spain, Germany, and the Africa Cup of Nations in Cote d’Ivoire. Then there’s some Premier League and a Top Four showdown in Serie A.
MAN CITY vs EVERTON
LUTON TOWN vs SHEFFIELD UNITED
TOTTENHAM vs BRIGHTON
REAL MADRID vs GIRONA
BAYER LEVERKUSEN vs BAYERN MUNICH
WEST HAM vs ARSENAL
ASTON VILLA vs MAN UNITED
A.C. MILAN vs NAPOLI
NIGERIA vs IVORY COAST
But first…
THE HEADLINES
➡️ The rulemakers at the International Football Association Board have approved a proposal to introduce “blue cards” to the game, which referees could brandish at players for dissent or cynical fouls in order to send them to a sin bin—penalty box—for 10 minutes. It’s the first new card since the yellows and reds were introduced in the 1970 World Cup, though there will be a significant trial phase before they’re widely implemented.
➡️ A teenage fan stuck a finger up the rear end of Sevilla forward Lucas Ocampos while he was taking a throw-in this week. The Adalusian club declared their “disgust at the incident,” while Rayo Vallecano said they were working to identify the supporter and take disciplinary action.
➡️ In an Asian Cup shocker, Jordan knocked South Korea out at the semifinal stage this week to advance to the final on Saturday at 10am ET/3pm GMT. They’ll face Qatar, who narrowly defeated Iran in the other semi, but as you’ll see there are two other (more promising) matches in that window.
➡️ Eden Hazard is out with an assessment of his own legacy: Lionel Messi is the greatest of all time, and Cristiano Ronaldo has had a superior career to his own, but “in terms of pure football, CR7 isn't a better player than me. Neymar, maybe.” Nobody else, says the Chelsea legend and Real Madrid non-legend, is in the conversation.
➡️ Former Manchester United attacker Jesse Lingard has signed for South Korea’s FC Seoul. A free agent since the summer, the move marks the end of his career in Europe’s top leagues at just 31 years old.
➡️ Chelsea rose emphatically from the ashes to beat Aston Villa 3-1 at Villa Park in midweek, showing their critics (like me) that Mauricio Pochettino still has juice in the manager’s job.
➡️ The DR Congo squad used the playing of their national anthem ahead of the AFCON semifinals this week to raise awareness of the ongoing atrocities by M23 rebels in Congo.
➡️ On their show The Overlap this week, Man United legends Gary Neville and Roy Keane suggested that Serie A teams they faced in the 1990s were doping.
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SATURDAY
MAN CITY vs EVERTON (7:30am ET, 12:30pm GMT)
This one has the eerie inevitability of a Man City match in February. This is traditionally the time each season when Pep Guardiola’s side are 2-3 matches into a 14-win streak. It does not matter who scores first when you can score three or four with minimal fuss, and the Sky Blues are stacking up 3-1s as usual over the last week. It might be giving Sean Dyche’s Everton too much credit to say they’ll score first here—or at all—but the Merseysiders are only down in the relegation zone because of a 10-point deduction. They’re more like the 12th or 13th best team in the division, and maybe they could get a couple of chances from set pieces and—ah, never mind.
LUTON TOWN vs SHEFFIELD UNITED (10am ET, 3pm GMT)
This here’s a proper relegation scrapper, though Sheffield United’s fate is surely sealed. Not to put them in a box, but theirs is postmarked “Championship.” The question is whether Luton Town are in the same shipment. The Hatters bring something a bit different than the other two clubs they came up with, a streetwise sense of what needs to be done to survive in this league—physical play, set pieces, a decent record at home—with a few stylish operators like Ross Barkley, who ought to be in the frame for the England team this summer at EURO 2024.
TOTTENHAM vs BRIGHTON (10am ET, 3pm GMT)
Micky van de Ven was crowned the Premier League’s fastest player this week, and the man really can shift. His pace at centerback has allowed Tottenham to get away with a perilously high line, the cornerstone of their (considerable) style this season. Roberto De Zerbi will surely look for ways his side can get in behind Spurs, but you never know which version of Brighton is going to show up. They can score four goals or give them away on any given day, but Spurs are usually active on both sides of the scoresheet as well. The keepers should be busy here.
REAL MADRID vs GIRONA (12:30pm ET, 5:30pm GMT)
It’s the giants vs. the cinderellas, as mighty Madrid play host to the most unlikely of title challengers. Girona have so far brilliantly outshone their Catalan neighbors Barcelona this season, scoring bags of goals and snatching results when necessary to fly high at the top of La Liga. It’s not quite a fairy tale when you consider Girona is something of a satellite club to Manchester City—Pep Guardiola’s brother Pere is even the chairman and part-owner—but this story is still fresh and unlikely.
Artem Dovbyk remains top of the scoring charts with 14 goals in 21 matches, and Sávio leads the league in assists with seven. The Blanquivermells have scored an astonishing 52 goals this season, four more than their mighty opponents here, and they’ve got quality all over the pitch. Look for Aleix Garcia in midfield, the deep-lying lynchpin who’s attracting interest from Barcelona, and his partner Yangel Herrera, a true product of the City Football Group who also spent time at fellow satellite club New York City FC.
Madrid may not quite match Girona for scoring, but they’ve conceded just 15 goals this season to claim the title of the league’s best defense. They’re trending towards the kind of defensive record that saw Barcelona to the title last term, even with some occasionally off-beat defensive lineups: last time out against crosstown rivals Atlético, they had right back Dani Carvajal at centerback and attacking midfielder Lucas Vázquez at right back. They conceded an equalizer in stoppage time there, and they’ll be hoping the return of Antonio Rüdiger will shore things up.
They can also count on the return of Vinicius Jr. to the attack, and who couldn’t use one of the world’s foremost wide forwards in a match like this? Brahim Díaz turned in another fine performance in his stead last weekend, but Vini and fellow Brazilian Rodrygo are most likely to fill in some of the goals now that Jude Bellingham has slowed down a bit. The young Englishman is still second in the scoring charts, but he’s got one goal in his last five matches.
Above all, though, Real are an outfit with some supreme athleticism, particularly on the flanks and in midfield. Aurélien Tchouaméni will reportedly return to buttress the running power of Eduardo Camavinga and Fede Valverde, the Uruguayan locomotive. They’ll run the hard yards, allowing the timeless Toni Kroos to pull the strings and keep it all ticking. Even at 34, he’s a match for anybody for 70 or 80 minutes. Girona will have a battle on their hands in the midfield trenches, particularly away from home at the Santiago Bernabeu. A win here, however, would send the cinderellas back to the top of the table.
BAYER LEVERKUSEN vs BAYERN MUNICH (12:30pm ET, 5:30pm GMT)
There is one undefeated team remaining in Europe’s top leagues this season, and it isn’t the old powers in Munich. With a thrilling stoppage-time winner against Stuttgart in the German Cup this week, Bayer Leverkusen hit 30 matches unbeaten across all competitions: six wins from six in the Europa League group stage, into the semis of the domestic cup, and 52 points from 60 available in the Bundesliga.
Xabi Alonso’s side are another among Europe’s finest defensive outfits, with just 14 goals conceded in La Liga, but don’t mistake that for conservatism. They’ve been scoring plenty behind the creative genius of Florian Wirtz, whom many are grumbling should get the same kind of shine that Bellingham and Pedri do as the finest young attacking midfielders of their generation. His partner-in-crime Victor Boniface is out injured, however, having led the team in scoring through the first half of the season.
And their opponents here are the dominant attacking force in European football. Bayern Munich have scored an astonishing 59 goals in 20 matches, thanks in large part to Harry Kane’s 24 strikes. The England captain is far and away the top goal-getter in the Bundesliga, and legendary German marksman Miroslav Klose had praise for Kane’s technique this week in Bild, offering some fascinating insight on the mechanics of his ball-striking. Bayern scored 12 more in the Champions League group stage, so rest assured they are not messing around. Leroy Sané is back to his best as a wide forward with eight goals and 11 assists in the domestic league, and Thomas Müller simply will not quit: he’s been one of the most effective players on the continent for 15 years now, and he’s settled into more of a facilitator role this season with seven assists.
Bayern do have some injuries of their own in wide forwards Kingsley Coman and Serge Gnabry, and they will know that traveling to the BayArena is entering a cauldron. Leverkusen don’t mind whether they’re home or away as far as results go, but their goal difference is +23 at home and they’ve conceded just six goals in 10 games. For the visiting Bavarians, this is their chance to strike a blow at their title rivals and deny them an Invincible season. There’s a long way to go yet, as we saw last season when Dortmund’s title push collapsed on the final day, and Bayern Munich will always believe the Bundesliga is theirs. But this week was not Leverkusen’s first stoppage-time winner of the season, and there’s a sense around them that this could be a team of destiny. Who ya got: the unstoppable force, or the immovable object?
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SUNDAY
WEST HAM vs ARSENAL (9am ET, 2pm GMT)
The Hammers haven’t won a match since they went to Arsenal and won on December 28. It’s been three draws and a loss to Manchester United last weekend since they ran out 2-0 winners at a ground where they hadn’t taken points in eight straight games. West Ham enjoyed a fine first half of the season, but it’s Arsenal who come into this London derby in the ascendency. The Gunners trounced Liverpool at the Emirates Stadium last time out, a thrilling restatement of their participation in the title race, but now they must travel to one of the grounds—alongside Liverpool’s Anfield—where their campaign came apart in the spring.
ASTON VILLA vs MAN UNITED (11:30am ET, 4:30pm GMT)
Villa Park has been a citadel since Unai Emery took over—no club won more matches at home in 2023—but the Villans have sunk towards mid-table form in recent weeks, taking eight points from the last 18 available. They bludgeoned Sheffield United last weekend, but a midweek FA Cup drubbing from Chelsea will leave them extremely eager to keep hold of fourth place. Their opponents come to Birmingham riding three wins on the trot and starting to believe that they might just be in the Top Four discussion. United are eight points back with 15 games to play, plenty of time to sort out which of these two or Tottenham will be playing Champions League football next season.
A.C. MILAN vs NAPOLI (2:45pm ET, 7:45pm GMT)
Milan have been running comfortably third in Serie A most of the season, but with Inter’s defeat of Juventus last week, they have an opportunity to get within striking distance of the Old Lady in second place. By the looks of it, nobody is catching Inter at the top of the league, but the red-and-blacks will at least want to keep a healthy distance from the scrum for fourth place going on below them. That’s what Napoli is tangled up in following a poor start to their title defense. The departure of champion manager Luciano Spalletti unsettled things, and replacement Rudi Garcia was dismissed in November. But Walter Mazzarri has steadied the ship, and now they’re four points back from Atalanta in fourth. This is a highly difficult assignment, however: Milan are undefeated in their last eight, taking 20 of 24 points available.
NIGERIA vs IVORY COAST (3pm ET, 8pm GMT)
The host of the Africa Cup of Nations will contest the final, as Côte d’Ivoire have careened through the tournament all the way to the end. Head coach Jean-Louis Gasset was sacked during the group stages after the Elephants turned in some poor performances—including a 4-0 hammering by Equatorial Guinea—but they ended up qualifying as one of the best third-place teams after Gasset was already out the door. Caretaker manager Emerse Fae has overseen a thrilling ride through the knockout rounds, including two come-from-behind victories against northern neighbors Mali and defending champions Senegal. A 1-0 semifinal victory over DR Congo will see them compete for the golden trophy in Abidjan late Sunday.
Their opponents are another 21st-century African powerhouse, the always star-studded Nigeria. The Super Eagles required penalties to see off South Africa to get here after dealing with Angola and Cameroon in the knockouts. They face the team they defeated once already in this tournament: one goal was enough in the group stage, when these two shared Group A and the Nigerians didn’t exactly set the world alight either. But they’ve been grinding out results on narrow margins with consistency and might just be slight favorites.
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THE FPL STOCK MARKET
↗️James Ward-Prowse (£6.0m) will have set-piece opportunities against Arsenal, and the schedule is plain sailing for West Ham after that. He’s generally playing a bigger role in that midfield without Lucas Pacqueta (£6.0m), though the Hammers’ #10 is not far from a return.
↗️Matheus Cunha: The Brazilian forward is good value at £5.7m and Wolves have a fairly favorable schedule coming up. Consider Pedro Neto (also £5.7m) in midfield as well—he looks up for it at the moment.
↗️Kieran Trippier (£6.8m): If you buy the Newcastlessance, you need the man back in your team.
↘️Ivan Toney (£8.1m) made a triumphant return from suspension, but now that the adrenaline is fading, the reality of Brentford’s plight may set in. They’ve taken six points from the last 30 available, and they’ve got in-form Wolves this week with Man City and Liverpool to follow.⚽︎